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| Weekly Economic Review Economic Calendar About | ||
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Inside the Market |
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7/01/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap Stocks gave back recent gains with the major Indexes all ending in the red. Treasury prices suffered a setback as well and the Greenback actually rallied. Markets Yesterday’s action was yet another session depicting the beginning of the summer trade. This involves low volume and erratic market price movement off of no noteworthy causal catalyst. That said, the Doc will be taking a few weeks summer break from the daily write-ups but be sure to check in for our weekly analysis’ which will be ongoing. Stay dry and enjoy yourself for a couple of months. Doctors orders !!
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6/30/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap Stocks managed to continue the phantom rally while Treasury prices gained as well. Finally the Greenback was thrashed pretty hard. Data Releases Keep an eye on Consumer Confidence today. For some odd reason this series has been increasing. Perhaps the vast pool of unemployed individuals are not being surveyed. Stocks There appears to be another positive technical picture evolving again in Equity land and this is explaining the recent gains despite deteriorating fundamentals. The path of least resistance for the major Indexes in now higher but underlying fundamentals remain horrible. The end result will probably be another thrashing of prices down the road. Fixed Income There are some technicals that support higher prices and lower Yields for 10 Years however the Doc will stay away from commenting on outright direction in this market. Too much volatility and deteriorating fundamentals. Currencies The US$ down-move is well intact via the EURO, where the medium term points to at least testing the all time highs for the EURO.
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6/26/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap It was truly a phantom rally as Stocks screamed higher for no apparent reason. Treasuries screamed higher as well and the Greenback lost ground. Data Releases Initial Claims came out worse than expectations and Stocks rallied over 2% !! Stocks Hey, no clue from the Doc on yesterday’s move. From the words of a seasoned Equities broker…the rally came from Mars. Fundamentals aren’t there and technicals aren’t even there. Glad it’s the weekend. Fixed Income Well, this market has chaotic volatility painted all over it. Sorry, we’ll just wait until we see something reasonably reliable to talk about when it comes up. Until then, roll the dice. Currencies The EURO held support for a second day and bounced nicely. The bear trend for the US$ is well intact. Weekend time and it’s a farewell shindig for the webmaster mixed with a serious Oktoberfest !!! Don’t worry, the webmaster will still be part of the marketdoctor team, just moving somewhere really cool.
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6/25/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap Stocks posted a split performance with the broad market in the red and Techs smoking higher. Treasury prices sank and the Greenback rallied. Data Releases New Home Sales disappointed yesterday while the
ever volatile Durable Goods were positive. FOMC minutes were out of sink with economic activity. Stocks What we’re seeing is the beginning of a summer market as the major Indexes jerked back and forth on no major news and finished in “no mans land”. No feel from the Doc but huge risk as economic fundamentals continue to erode. Fixed Income It was news from the Fed that they wouldn’t change their Treasury buyout plan that ultimately sucked the life out of price gains. The 5 Year auction went OK and now it’s time for the longer dated stuff. Path of least resistance at this juncture is for lower prices and higher Yields Currencies Well, the ECB did an informal easing by offering funds to banks at lower rates. This knocked down the EURO and almost took out the Doc’s support at 1.3850. Bottom line is the US$ remain technically bearish but a trade to EURO 1.3850 would neutralize the scenario.
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6/24/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap Stocks finished the day with little change while Treasuries rallied hard. Finally the Greenback was simply slammed via the EURO. Data Releases Keep an eye on Durable Goods and New Home Sales today. Stocks Nothing new to mention in this sector. Some of the technical air has been let out of the major Indexes and risk remains high. Fixed Income A solid shorter dated auction kept an overall bid to the Fixed Income sector. The real test will be how the markets receive longer dated paper. 10 Year Notes are close to a price rally break out where a trade to Yield 3.58% would be enough to trigger it. Currencies For some reason traders have built in an expectation that the Fed will raise rates. Yesterday’s well received short dated Treasury auction however seemed to dispel this idea and the result of no imminent Fed hike…a slamming of the US$. Technicals have now turned bearish on the Greenback again where a trade to EURO 1.3850 would negate the outlook.
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6/23/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap It was simply hammer time for Stocks as fundamental reality is quickly setting in. Treasury prices rallied hard and the Greenback rallied as well. Economic News Now what do you know…after months of nonsensical talk about grass shoots and an economic turn around, the world bank released a dismal assessment on the economy. Perhaps they’ve been reading the market doctor !! Stocks Haven’t heard much from the media mouth pieces lately as Stocks are getting simply slammed. What has the Doc been telling you…it was a pure technical rally with pathetic fundamental support over the past few months. Once the objectives were hit…it’s profit taking and hammer time. This market remains laden with risk. Grass shoots….sounds like something from the GoldiLocks scenario. Fixed Income Well, with Stocks getting slammed yesterday it was a reallocation into Bonds. The question is…will traders/investors keep buying paper. As we mentioned yesterday, if 10 Year Yields can get near 4% again…it’s lights out for lower yields. Currencies The Doc will be going neutral on the Buck for the medium term.
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6/22/09 Friday’s Market Recap Stocks posted a split performance as the broad market ended somewhat flat while Techs posted a gain. Treasury prices rallied while the Greenback did little to mention. Stocks Stocks simply followed our last analysis which mentioned that technical objectives had been reached and that technical speculators would be taking profits (hence the losses posted in the major Indexes last week). This scenario remains, where technicians may continue to square some speculative bullish positions as they wait for the next technical indicator to kick in. No feel at this point from the Doc, but fundamentals remain quite bad. Fixed Income This coming week could dictate the medium term tone
for the 10 Year sector. If yields can trade into the 4% area again, it
would mark the beginning of a medium term bear market and higher
yields. Currencies The Doc will be going neutral on the Buck for the medium term.
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6/12/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap It was yet another jerky session in Stock land and this time the major Indexes held onto a gain. Treasury prices managed to rally hard and the Greenback got slammed. Oh yes, Crude is approaching $73. Economic News Retail Sales managed to come in a bit better than expectations however the rate is compared to a dismal pace from last period. Initial Claims…can you really say the number was positive…it was above 600,000. Just a reminder to keep an eye on the Swine Flu issue….talk of pandemic. Stocks Same old scenario…technical objectives have just about been met across the board for the major Indexes (e.g. NASDAQ high 1800s). This may keep the markets in a state of flux as profit taking and last ditch speculators will be adjusting positions. If significant upside progress can’t be made soon, it could be hammer time. Fixed Income The 30 Year auction came in OK and 10 Year paper bounced hard off of the Doc’s Yield resistance of about 4%. Prices may rally a bit more before resuming the downside carnage which should ultimately blow out 4% Currencies No relief yesterday and the Buck will be served for lunch for some time to come. Weekend time and the Doc may hit the mountains.
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6/11/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap Stocks jerked back and forth and ending this time in the red while Treasury prices got slammed once again. The Greenback rallied a tad and Crude Oil broke $70. Economic News Hey the Fed’s Beige book said the economic downturn was moderating. The downturn better be moderating because it was in near free fall before. Keep an eye on Retail data today. Stocks Now hasn’t the Doc been calling Stock activity? Same old scenario…technical objectives have just about been met across the board for the major Indexes (e.g. NASDAQ high 1800s). This may keep the markets in a state of flux as profit taking and last ditch speculators will be adjusting positions. Fixed Income 10 Year auction results were quite dismal and comments from Russia about reallocating away from US Treasuries didn’t help matters. There is some congestion around the 10 Year Yield area from 4 to 4.05%...let’s see if it holds. The path of least resistance remains for continued lower prices and higher Yields on the longer end. Currencies The Buck some how caught a relief trade (off of the Beige book?). Down trend is still intact.
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6/10/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap Stocks jerked back and forth with little progress made in either direction however Techs moved up. Treasury prices did little to nothing, Crude Oil toyed with $70 and the Greenback got slammed again. Economic News Keep an eye on Retail data today. Stocks No change from yesterday’s rap…that technical objectives have just about been met across the board for the major Indexes (e.g. NASDAQ high 1800s). This may keep the markets in a state of flux as profit taking and last ditch speculators will be adjusting positions. As we mentioned last week however, there appears to be a re-flation force in the economy which may play in this sector…too early to tell at this point. Bottom line however is that underlying fundamentals remain horrible. Fixed Income Shorter dated Treasury auctions have gone quite well however the real test will be investor response to the longer dated paper. This sector is simply getting slammed. As the Doc mentioned last week, the path of least resistance is for continued lower prices and higher Yields on the longer end. There may be a tad of Yield resistance at 10 Year 4.05% but the air is simply coming out of this market. Currencies It’s hammer time once again as the EURO quickly woke up. Long term downside objectives for the US$/EURO could exceed 1.7000. Oil It’s still a US$ trade
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6/09/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap Stocks jerked back and forth with little progress made in either direction by the closing bell. The Greenback managed to grind a bit higher and Treasuries were decimated once again. Economic News Quiet until Retail data later in the week. Stocks No change from yesterday’s rap…that technical objectives have just about been met across the board for the major Indexes (e.g. about 1% away). This may keep the markets in a state of flux as profit taking and last ditch speculators will be adjusting positions. As we mentioned last week however, there appears to be a re-flation force in the economy which may play in this sector…too early to tell at this point. Bottom line however is that underlying fundamentals remain horrible. Fixed Income No change from yesterday’s rap….this sector is simply getting slammed. As the Doc mentioned last week, the path of least resistance is for continued lower prices and higher Yields. There may be a tad of Yield resistance at 10 Year 4.05% but the air is simply coming out of this market. Currencies The EURO got close to testing the Doc’s 1.3750 support and it responded with a “smell ya later stronger dollar” as it quickly rallied over 1.3900. More choppy trade in the near term and the US$ downtrend is well intact.
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6/08/09 Friday’s Market Recap Despite the seemingly positive news on the employment front, Stocks merely waffled back and forth posting little gains on the session. Treasury prices got slammed again but the Greenback managed to rally. Economic News Well, the payroll numbers came in better than expected but the revisions were horrible. Stocks The story remains that technical objectives have just about been met across the board for the major Indexes (e.g. about 1% away). This may keep the markets in a state of flux as profit taking and last ditch speculators will be adjusting positions. As we mentioned last week however, there appears to be a re-flation force in the economy which may play in this sector…too early to tell at this point. Bottom line however is that underlying fundamentals remain horrible. Fixed Income Ouch…this sector is simply getting slammed. As the Doc mentioned last week, the path of least resistance is for continued lower prices and higher Yields. There may be a tad of Yield resistance at 10 Year 4.05% but the air is simply coming out of this market. Currencies More consolidation for the Buck as the positive payroll report caused some short term profit taking, however the trend remains for continued US$ declines. EURO support comes in at 1.3750. Metals Well well, $1000 was defended again and the phantom dumping hit the shiny stuff hard. All we can say is that fundamentals remain quite positive for this sector however artificial dumping may keep price action a mess for a while.
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6/05/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap Stocks managed to recoup their losses from Wednesday’s trade while Treasury prices were simply slaughtered. Finally the Greenback held its ground. Economic News It’s all about the employment report today. Stocks The technical objectives are getting closer and closer as the Doc’s upside NASDAQ levels come in at the high 1800s. However, if the new pulse of the recovery is to stoke inflation…then Stocks could move even higher. That would purely be an inflationary trade with no real fundamental underpinning. Fixed Income Treasury prices got slaughtered once again and this time the path of least resistance is for even lower prices and higher yields. Be careful of this sector however as the Fed could throw in a few last desperate buy measures to try and lower Yields. This sector stinks bad. Currencies Just a bit of consolidation with the Doc’s EURO resistance of 1.4400 still holding. The overall trend remains quite bearish for the Buck. Metals After some artificial slamming, these shiny metals quickly bounced back. Can the phantom forces hold gold under $1000. Doesn’t look like it anymore. Hey, it’s somebody’s birthday this weekend. Another year older, a little less hair and a slightly larger gut. Can you guess who it is? Yeah, I know you’re thinking it’s the webmaster but it’s someone else.
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6/04/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap It was pre-employment data fears that sent Stocks falling into the red while Treasury prices rallied a bit. Finally the Greenback rallied as well. Economic News Preliminary Job data came out and did not depict a rebound in this beleaguered sector. Keep an eye on Initial Claims today. Stocks It was the profit taking arm that won the battle yesterday and today could be even more choppy as it’s the last trading session before the all important employment report on Friday. Technicals still show a bit of upside but the objectives are so close to being hit that technicians could throw in the towel early. Fixed Income A tiny relief rally and no feel from the Doc on this sector. There needs to be a bit more value building at current levels in order to formulate a clue. Currencies Just a tiny relief rally for the Buck yesterday as the Doc’s EURO resistance at 1.4400 has held to a tee. Short term could be choppy but the trend for the lower buck remains. Metals Now wasn’t it interesting how some phantom sellers came into the market just below the $1000 gold level? Let’s see if these forces can hold this market back.
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6/03/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap Stocks waffled around a bit with no major moves on the day while Treasury prices finally staged a rally. Lastly, the Greenback was hammered again via the EURO. Change in the Dow It was simply poor decision making and questionable management that led to icons such as Citigroup and GM to be ousted from the Dow. It’s an unfortunate event, however the addition of Cisco is an excellent choice. Interesting Comment Geithner uttered an interesting comment during his travels in China and that involved the idea that deflation is no longer a major fear. Stocks The battle will be between profit taking prior to Friday’s employment report and technical speculators trying to pull the last few percent out of the upside objectives. As we mentioned, the NASDAQ objectives point to the high 1800s. At that point, you may see technicians booking profits. Fundamentals remain horrible. Fixed Income This market will simply be riddled with volatility as hope for the mortgage bailout remains, albeit a fading one, and this will battle against a lack of international demand and the fear of rising inflation. Currencies Same story in yesterday’s report. The US$ down move we have been mentioning for months now is well intact. Near term US$ support comes in at EURO 1.4400 and a near term objective comes in at EURO 1.4600. Longer term…it could get worse. Metals So far artificial selling has not been able to put a lid on this well supported by sound fundamentals sector. The interesting part is that Silver has led the way.
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6/02/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap First of all….did everybody miss the Doc last week? Don’t answer that. Stocks maintained their exuberant mode as the major Indexes smoked higher while Treasuries got thrashed again. Finally the US$ was annihilated as well. Economic News Oh boy…the big hype yesterday was the ISM report which came in a tad higher than expectations. Sure, that and the largest US bankruptcy in history and what do you have ? A stock rally of over 2%. Good thing the Doc took some time off. Stocks The bottom line remains that technicals are simply dictating direction while analysts are trying to find any kind of fundamental out there to justify the rally. We mentioned that the ultimate objective for the NASDAQ could reach the high 1800s. Remember…that’s a technical projection where fundamentals remain pathetic. Fixed Income Oh my…can someone say thrashing? We won’t even mention the mortgage bailout plan anymore. This sector remains in a near chaotic state as the air is coming out. No feel on Yield levels at this juncture but we’ll let you know when the crystal ball clears. Currencies Well, the US$ down move we have been mentioning for months now is well intact. Near term US$ support comes in at EURO 1.4400 and a near term objective comes in at EURO 1.4600. Longer term…it could get worse.
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| Stephan Kudyba (MBA, PhD) THE MARKET DOCTOR |
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Market Doctor Disclaimer All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. “The Market Doctor” or anyone affiliated with the production of the investment market information is not responsible for any activities conducted by viewers. This material is informational only and does not recommend investment activities for corresponding viewers. |
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