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4/30/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap It was some relief on the Swine Flu issue that managed to send stocks higher. Troubling inflation information sent Treasuries tumbling and the Greenback got hit as well. Economic Numbers 1st Qrtr GDP came in at an atrocious -6% but the more disturbing news was the jump in the implicit deflator which signals real inflation. Stocks It was really some relief on the Swine Flu front and of course positive technicals that got stocks moving higher. Overnight positive news from Japan regarding production activity has Japanese Stocks aggressively higher which may keep an OK bid to the US. You know the story, technicals remain positive for the major Indexes but fundamentals remain bleak…which implies high risk. Fixed Income Well…forget about the mortgage bailout as Treasuries got completely slammed yesterday blowing out the 10 Year 3% yield level. A bit too early to tell but you may be seeing the start of something changing drastically in this sector. Next few sessions should provide confirmation. Currencies Hey, the Doc aint gonna get excited on this one until a EURO close above 1.3600.
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4/29/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap Just a listless, swine flu driven market in Stockland as the major indexes ended a tad in the red. Treasury prices got simply whacked and the Greenback got whacked as well. Economic Numbers Consumer Confidence rose….you’ve got to be kidding me, because of the phantom rally in Stocks perhaps? Special Event It’s Opa’s 78th today. Stocks Same old swine flu gig. Fundamentals remain horrible for this market while technicals remain positive. Fixed Income Hey, how about that big mortgage bailout plan proposed by the Government. It’s over baby as investors are shying away from Treasuries. This market smells bad. Currencies Greenback got whacked this time via the EURO. Hey, the Doc aint gonna get excited on this one until a EURO close above 1.3600.
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4/28/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap Stocks gave back some recent gains off of Swine Flu news while Treasuries did little to nothing and finally, the Greenback rallied. Stocks Yeah, yeah swine flu. The bottom line is that fundamentals remain pathetic for higher stock prices. The only support to price action is a technical chart formation. This market has quickly regained itself as a joke. Buy ‘em if you want. Fixed Income Yawn Currencies What can I say…more yawning
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4/27/09 Friday’s Market Recap Stocks continued their phantom rally while Treasuries sank a bit lower. Finally the Greenback was choppy. Stocks The Doc is back and it looks like the technical battle is continuing to win out in the price action in Stockland as the major Indexes moved higher. As the Doc has been mentioning, this move is purely technical without solid fundamentals, which renders it very high risk. Technicals say prices can go higher but be very careful out there. It smells like it did last summer. Fixed Income Well, you can bag that government mortgage bailout plan as Treasury Yields grind higher. You can also bag those robust refinancing profits by big bailout receiving banks as well if things continue. Currencies Wild and crazy and no great conviction. The long, long trend still favors a lower Greenback, but that could take some time. Precious Metals They’re starting to poke their heads up again as China is building reserves (and smartly so)…can artificial selling put a cap on Gold yet again? |
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4/17/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap Well what do you know…good earnings from a Tarp recipient and Stocks rallied. Treasuries sank a bit and the Greenback gained some ground. Stocks Well, what do you know, JP Morgan’s good news was the catalyst to drive Stock prices higher. Maybe some more bailout babies will post more positive earnings as well. You know the story, technicals remain positive for higher stocks but fundamentals are beginning to smell more and more. Fixed Income Yawn…up a few tics, down a tic…up a few tics, down a tic. Currencies More yawnadgation (that’s PhD jargon). Good thing it’s weekend time.
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4/16/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap Stocks posted a late day rally while Treasury prices rallied as well. Finally the Greenback rallied to boot. Market News Intel earnings disappointed early yesterday but next in line are the major financials. Perhaps the big bailout receivers found ways to post incredible results just as Wells Fargo did…wouldn’t that be a surprise. Stocks The battle between technicals and fundamentals raged on yesterday with technicals winning out late in the day, in expectation of good earnings from financials. Technicals still point to higher prices across the major Indexes while fundamentals remain pathetic. What does that mean? Basically that prices can be pushed around for the near term but fundamentals generally take control on the longer term picture. Fixed Income The Fed is winning the battle for lower Yields but it’s really taking some time to make progress. If the Fed continues the aggressive stance, 2.25% on 10 years is not out of the question. Currencies You know the story…EURO 1.3100 to 1.3500 for now.
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4/15/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap Stocks got whacked off of a bout of fundamental reality while Treasury prices got pushed up by the Fed. Finally the Greenback rallied for absolutely no reason. Economic News Retail Sales was pathetic and regardless of the number released tomorrow, just go food shopping and ask yourself if prices are rising. CPI release…it’s been ridiculous for about 6 years now. Stocks It’s now a battle between fundamentals which are poor for Stocks and technicals that remain mildly positive. That’s it. Fixed Income Hey…how about those free markets with the Fed pushing US long term interest rates lower. What a mess. Currencies You now the story…EURO 1.3100 to 1.3500 for now.
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4/14/09 Yesterday’s Market Recap Stocks shrugged off early losses and late day gains to end pretty much flat. Treasury prices finally rallied as Fed buying moved things a bit and the Greenback got slammed via the EURO. Economic News Keep an eye on CPI and Retail Sales today. Interesting bit of news In case you were shocked by the Wells Fargo positive earnings report, check out the link below to put things in perspective. Complements of the webmaster!! Wells Fargo May Need $50 Billion in Capital Stocks Technicals remain positive but fundamentals are far from warranting much higher Stock prices…sounds just like the same scenario when the Dow was at 13,000. For now technicals are winning and point to more gains. Fixed Income The only reason why prices may rise from here for longer dated securities is if the Fed steps up aggressive buying. It looks like the Doc’s taunting yesterday got them to move a bit. Yields are still too high for any kind of real mortgage bail out. Currencies Now just when you thought the Greenback was about to neutralize the downtrend, it got simply whacked and keeps the momentum alive for more losses. A close of EURO above 1.3500 would get things really cranking. Gold Here’s a market where fundamentals warrant much higher prices but artificial dumping by some large banks are perverting the market. We’ll see who wins over the long run. Yeah…smart move, dump an asset that has high fundamental value.
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4/13/09 Thursday’s Market It was simply a wild day in Equity land as the low volume, holiday session was greeted with positive news from Wells Fargo that propelled stocks higher. Treasury prices dropped again and the Greenback held strong via the EURO. Economic News The week is simply loaded with data that could depict just about anything in the economy. Stocks Can you say…Dow wow? The Wells Fargo news simply put a massive squeeze on short positions during a low volume day. Technicals have pointed strongly positive again, however one must ask the question…why did Wells Fargo need bailout money if its business model produced profits? And then ask the question, what’s the quality of this rally in Stocks? Fundamentals do not support the price action….it’s all technical. Fixed Income Bye bye mortgage bail out plan, as the market is saying….in your face, Fed. Currencies Well, we’re about to enter the land of neutrality if the EURO cracks 1.3100 on a close. Then it’s simply go figure for the short term, but the very long term still favoring a weak US$.
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4/08/09 Yesterday’s Market Update Technical support gave way and the result was significant losses for Stocks. Treasury prices did little to mention and the Greenback gained ground via the EURO. Stocks As the Doc mentioned…the latest rally was purely driven by technicals where fundamentals were far from supporting a 20%+ gain in the Indexes. No trends to mention and all eyes will be on earnings news coming up. Underlying risk to this sector remains very high. Fixed Income Nothing new to post here. This market is a mess, caught between artificial buying and waning investment interest. Currencies Euro 1.3100 to 1.3700 for now with a continued long tern trend for a lower US$, unless 1.3100 breaks that is.
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4/07/09 Yesterday’s Market Update It was a slight negative in Stock land as news of more potential CEO oustings by the government spooked price activity. Treasury prices retreated again and the Greenback strengthened a bit via the EURO. Stocks Technicals still remain positive as the mild rally into the close yesterday kept things alive. A trade below S&P 820 would negate the outlook. That’s it for now. Fixed Income 10 Year yields continue to approach 3% and still no one is even mentioning the bailout plan. Perhaps Fed buying of Treasuries isn’t enough to lower Yields….that could be a problem. Currencies Euro 1.3100 to 1.3700 for now with a continued long tern trend for a lower US$.
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4/06/09 Friday’s Market Update Stocks cooled off a bit on Friday but still managed to post gains. Treasury prices got rocked and the Greenback got whacked as well. Stocks Technicals still look quite positive for the major Indexes and we’ll be entering earnings season soon. For some reason there was a lot of positive spin from the G20 summit but the Doc sees no tangible outcomes, just a lot more printing of money. One point to keep in mind…Stocks may continue to rally as technicals indicate however the underlying fundamentals are continuing to erode. The early trade in Asia has markets rallying. Fixed Income Friday’s action, which involved a hammering of US Treasuries, was enough to neutralize the price uptrend. Recent rises in Yields will severely hinder the Obama mortgage bailout plan. What ever happened to it…no one is even talking about it anymore. Something smells. Currencies The US$ is getting hammered via the EURO but the EURO will need to take out 1.3750 to get the momentum rocking again. US$ downtrend still intact. Gold Unfortunately artificial forces continue to adversely affect this market. Some dumping by some major organizations to raise capital to float paper is the latest albatross; however private demand seems to be increasing. This market could be a mess for a while. Watch this clip below and let me know what you think the price of Gold should be ? (email the Doc - marketdoctor@marketdoctor.com)
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4/03/09 Yesterday’s Market Update It was FASB and some promise of printing big money from the G20 that kept Stocks on fire. Treasury prices sold off however and the Greenback got whacked. Economic Data and FASB Good news from FASB which appears to be beginning to loosen up the mark to market activities along with the G20 who flapped their gums about printing money, however real economic ramifications from this….nill. Stocks As the Doc mentioned, good news from FASB would push stocks higher. The lackluster close albeit still higher was a bit concerning. Technicals remain positive but the next couple of trading sessions will be key. Any solid sell-off from current levels could quickly turn this market on a dime. Fixed Income All that hub-bub from the G20, but you know what? Obama's mortgage plan is going by the wayside as 10 Year Yields remain stickily stuck and grinding higher. There needs to be a solid price up-move soon or things could just reverse in this market and bye bye mortgage bailout. Currencies Now didn’t the Doc tell you about the EURO holding well given all the talking down of the currency and to watch out because the market was expecting a 50 bpt cut? Well the EURO screamed higher yesterday and the US$ downtrend is well intact. Weekend time and the Doc will be teaching those executive MBAs again.
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4/02/09 Yesterday’s Market Update It was some better than expected economic data (ISM) that helped provide the upside momentum to stocks while Treasury prices rallied as well. Finally the US$ remained stable. Economic Data and FASB It appears that even the smallest improvement of economic data releases over market expectations is pushing stocks higher, as the slightly better than expected ISM helped yesterday. Today FASB meets on potentially changing the accounting method of toxic assets. A positive change away from the current Mark-to-Market method could prove very positive to stocks. Stocks The momentum continues and technicals have turned mildly positive again. Keep an eye on any FASB news coming out on valuation of toxic assets. Has the economy turned?? Of course not, but there appears to be some lending going on out there. Fixed Income The positive price trend remains intact with ultimate yield objectives pointing to low 2%s for 10 Years. A Yield close above 3% would neutralize the trend. Currencies The value zone remains EURO 1.3100 to 1.3800. Anywhere in between…roll the dice. One positive for the EURO is that many market players have been talking down the EUROZone economy and currency as well and it has maintained its strength despite this. The market is also expecting an aggressive 50 bpt cut from the EUROZone as well.
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4/01/09 Yesterday’s Market Update Stocks tried to keep the up-move alive as the major Indexes held on to some of the noteworthy gains they achieved during the trading session by the closing bell. The Greenback held its ground via the EURO and Treasury prices posted a gain. Special Note This could actually be an interesting G20 summit as all will be looking to see what type of criticism the US receives and whether France will walk out. Then again, it could be business as usual with representatives just getting a free vacation at 5 star accommodations as they jawbone about nothing. Stocks Stocks remain in a state of flux, where a noteworthy gain from current levels could quickly reignite the uptrend and conversely a marked decline in prices could initiate the beginning of another wave down. Keep your seatbelts fastened. Fixed Income The Doc is just sensing a big up-move in prices of longer dated maturities soon….just call it a feel. BUT DON’T HOLD ME TO IT !! Currencies You know the story….a break of EURO 1.3100 and its neutrality for the buck. By the way…the Doc sees GDP returning to positive 5% next quarter…APRIL FOOLS !!
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| Stephan Kudyba (MBA, PhD) THE MARKET DOCTOR |
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Market Doctor Disclaimer All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. “The Market Doctor” or anyone affiliated with the production of the investment market information is not responsible for any activities conducted by viewers. This material is informational only and does not recommend investment activities for corresponding viewers. |
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