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5/26/09
Pre-summer
organization of micro and macro factors affecting the financial
markets. Be back next week !!
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5/22/09
Yesterday’s Market Recap
Stocks took it on the nose yesterday as
fundamentals ruled the direction. Treasury prices got completely
thrashed and the Greenback was thrashed as well. Finally Oil and
Gold rallied nicely.
Economic Update
Initial Claims blew out market expectations on
the negative side. Hey, how bout that recovery?
Stocks
What you’re getting is wild market volatility
as the battle between positive technicals and negative fundamentals
are waging war. Another negative similar to that posted yesterday
will negate the positive technical outlook.
Fixed Income
Now didn’t the Doc mention that this sector was
beginning to stink and stink it did big time yesterday. Fed
buying….mortgage bailout…it almost looks like the Fed threw in the
towel.
Currencies
The US$ downtrend the Doc has been mentioning
for months now remains well intact. The next EURO resistance comes
in at EURO 1.4400.
Gold
The fundamentals for this market get stronger
and stronger. Let’s see if there is some artificial selling that
tries to go against those fundamentals.
Weekend
time and I smell Summer babeee.
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5/21/09
Yesterday’s Market Recap
It was an exhausted Equity market that
relinquished solid gains and ended in the red by the closing bell.
Treasury prices rallied a bit and the Greenback got completely
destroyed. Oh, by the way…Oil is above $60 bucks a barrel.
Economic Update
Leave it to the financial officials to confuse
things, as the latest verbiage sides on increasing the inflation
rate. Here’s a wake up call….they don’t have to try, inflation is
already here and rising.
Stocks
With only technicals to drive price action,
things can get very risky and yesterday was case in point as the
major Indexes slid into the red by the close after a robust early
trade.
Hat’s off to the well managed Hewlett Packard
company that painted a dire picture for the PC business. No spin
there, the PC sector is on the skids not to mention other sectors in
Tech as well. HP is a solid company.
Fixed Income
Fed buying….mortgage bailout…it’s really
starting to look bad for lower rates in this sector. In fact it’s
starting to stink. Hey…didn’t the Doc write that yesterday ?
Currencies
Well, as the Doc mentioned, a break of EURO
1.3700 would increase momentum and increase it did as the EURO
surged to 1.3800 at the highs. US$ down trend is well intact with
EURO support coming in at 1.3680.
Oil
Higher oil ?….it’s all about the falling US$,
so Oil can go much higher. However high inventories make the trade
risky.
Gold
Let’s
see if the powers to be will try and put a top on this fundamentally
sound market again with forces selling.
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5/20/09
Yesterday’s Market Recap
Stocks jerked back and forth posting little
major change on the day while Treasury prices got whacked again.
Finally the Greenback got whacked as well.
Economic Update
Hey, remember all that chatter about Japan
being the safe haven economy. Well it continues to post massive
declines in growth with the most recent numbers deeming its current
recession, the worst in the post World War II era. By the way…the
Doc has continuously labeled this economy “smoke and mirrors” for
about 2 decades now. Safe haven my a$$.
Stocks
It’s all about technicals that continue to
point to higher prices for the major Indexes. What do you know…Bank
of America has raised billions on its recent sales of stock.
Interesting how the market keeps going up despite a lack of
fundamental support.
Fixed Income
Fed buying….mortgage bailout…it’s really
starting to look bad for lower rates in this sector. In fact it’s
starting to stink.
Currencies
Well…the bumpy ride is resulting in further
losses for the Greenback. The next big milestone is Euro 1.3700. A
close above that should increase the momentum of the US$ decline.
Oil
Higher
oil ?….it’s all about the falling US$.
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5/19/09
Yesterday’s Market Recap
Well it was a major Dow Wow, off of no major
news, as Stocks surged higher. Treasury prices got slammed and the
Greenback was stable.
Stocks
It looks like those market technicians got
really pissed at the Doc’s commentary yesterday as they ramped price
action higher, of course without any major fundamental backing.
Actually one issue of note was the Obama administration backing off
of pressure on corporate pay that may have helped trigger the wall
street rally.
The Doc will have to stress technicals at this point, as they are
dominating. NASDAQ upside could hit high 1800s. That’s what the
charts say.
Fixed Income
The talk was major buying of Treasuries by the
Fed to keep yields at bay. Well this is just backfiring in their
face. The countervailing strategy at this point is to increase the
slope of the curve to enhance banking profits and take away from
individual Yields on their savings. So isn’t that nice.
Currencies
OK…yawn
here.
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5/18/09
Friday’s Market Recap
Stocks gave back yet another chunk of the
phantom gains posted over the past few months while Treasury prices
did little to mention. Finally, the Greenback rallied via the EURO.
Economic News
Isn’t it odd that you didn’t hear much about
the massive up-tic in core CPI last week that blew out analyst’s
expectations? But I bet you heard all kinds of nonsense about
deflation as being a potential problem. Keep printing money and see
what happens…
Keep an eye on news about increased cases of
Swine Flu in NY.
Stocks
Another kick in the gut to the once exuberant
Equity sector as profit taking ruled and increased scrutiny as to
the real fundamental value of Stocks. Technicals continue to hang
on to a positive outlook but their reliability is worthless given
lack of fundamental support.
Fixed Income
Yawn
Currencies
It was
negative news from Germany and the EURO Zone that sucked the life
out of the near term uptrend in the EURO. The long term picture
remains positive, however the ride could be choppy over the next
days.
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5/15/09
Yesterday’s Market Recap
Stocks managed to bounce back from Tuesday’s
hammering as the major Indexes finished in the black. Treasury
prices did little to mention and the Greenback was steady as well.
Economic News
Initial Claims were horrible and PPI shows
signs of inflation. Keep an eye on CPI today. Oh, by the way, the
rate of foreclosures is rising.
Stocks
We’ll keep it short….technical indicators still
are hanging on to a positive scenario. Can prices go up?…of course
more air can be pumped into the market but fundamentals aren’t
there.
Fixed Income
Quiet one….the Fed will have to keep pumping
the well to get Yields down. Keep an eye on CPI today.
Currencies
A trade below EURO 1.3500 will quickly negate
the near term uptrend and put things back into a choppy range. A
close above 1.3700 would increase the momentum of US$ deprecation.
It’s
weekend time and let’s hope it’s not soggy.
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5/14/09
The MARKET DOCTOR team would like to take
this time to remember a first class economist Bill Seidman who
passed away yesterday. He was a no spin, intelligent market and
economic analyst who will be missed. The link below says it well.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30727123/
Yesterday’s Market Recap
Stocks got simply slammed as economic data came
in soft. Treasury prices rallied and the Greenback held its ground.
Economic News
Retail Sales came out simply horrible yesterday
(now didn’t the Doc say that fundamentals are pathetic). Keep an
eye on Initial Claims and PPI today.
Stocks
It was weak retail sales and the talk of more
proposed government intervention in the business world that rocked
stocks. Look, the bottom line is that the recent rally was a
phantom move up off of chart patterns and no solid fundamentals.
Yesterday’s action was enough to put a solid dent into technicals
and with pathetic fundamentals the risk remains very high.
No feel from the Doc....technicals without
fundamentals?...you can keep it. This sector remains vulnerable.
Fixed Income
Well, as we mentioned over the past couple of
days, it looks like the Fed really wants rates to move lower and
they will probably continue to win the game. No trends but path of
least resistance is for higher prices, lower yields.
Currencies
Well… a
trade below EURO 1.3500 will quickly negate the near term uptrend
and put things back into a choppy range. A close above 1.3700 would
increase the momentum of US$ depreciation.
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5/13/09
Yesterday’s Market Recap
It was a mixed performance in Stockland as the
broad market ended in the black while Techs were in the red.
Treasury prices did little to mention and the Greenback got slammed
again.
Stocks
Not much to report in this sector except that
recent losses were more a part of profit taking as technical
objectives were nearly met in the S&P. However, the technical
picture remains positive. After hours news from Intel was positive
and shares were up in the after hours session.
Oh, by the way….fundamentals remain pathetic.
Fixed Income
No major moves yesterday, but the Fed has been
in aggressively buying with the attempt at lowering Yields. They
may actually win over the medium term. Hey, the Fed is printing
money to use to buy Treasuries to lower Yields….how’s that for sound
fundamental market theory. It’s a joke.
Currencies
The Greenback is just getting hammered via the
EURO and the 1.3700 level the Doc has mentioned is coming into
play. A EURO close above it would increase the momentum. The Buck
remains a wet taco…why? just look at the US Treasury market.
Crude
In case you’re wondering why Crude is rallying
despite rising inventories…just take a look at the falling US$,
there’s your culprit.
Gold and Silver
Silver
actually has broken out into a bull trend with upside much higher.
Gold looks positive as well, but the artificial dumping may keep
this shiny one choppy. Let’s see, artificial dumping…how’s that for
free market theory.
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5/12/09
Yesterday’s Market Recap
Stocks finally got whacked a bit while Treasury
prices surged higher. Finally the Greenback managed to stabilize
via the EURO.
Stocks
What you had was a huge bout of profit taking
by speculators as technical objectives were nearly hit in the broad
market. As the Doc has been mentioning, the massive up move over
the past few weeks has simply been a result of technical chart
indicators and a huge squeeze on short positions.
The tech heavy NASDAQ however has more room on
the upside as technical objectives still point much higher.
Fixed Income
As Stocks prices declined in dramatic fashion,
it appears that the money quickly funneled back into the Fixed
Income sector as 10 Year Yields dropped precipitously. Technicals
are pointing to more price gains for longer dated Treasuries.
Currencies
Quiet
one yesterday, but the Greenback downtrend is alive and kicking. A
EURO close above 1.3700 would get the momentum moving even stronger.
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5/11/09
Friday’s Market Recap
Stocks ended the week on an exuberant note as
the major Indexes surged higher. Treasury prices posted little net
change by the close and the Greenback got hammered.
Economic News
You saw it. Unemployment at 8.9% but the way
the media portrayed it, it was like the number was good. It
wasn’t.
Stocks
Technicals continue to rule as no surprises by
the pathetic stress test results managed to add a positive as well.
One major point to note is that SP500 technical upside objectives
are nearing (about 2-3% away) in which case the phantom rally may
begin to dissipate. But for now…the major Indexes remain positive,
but not fundamentally. So this sector stinks.
Fixed Income
10 Year Yields almost reached 3.40% on Friday,
as the latter part of the US Treasury auction last week was horribly
received. Mortgage bailout has now turned into a joke and this
sector is beginning to stink as well.
Currencies
As we mentioned last week, the Greenback was
about to get thrashed and thrashed it did via the EURO. The trend
remains in place for further thrashing, where EURO 1.3775 to 1.3800
could offer a little short term support for the Buck.
The
Asian currency reserve plan mentioned last week could just provide a
major factor to US$ declines.
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5/08/09
Yesterday’s Market Recap
Stocks suffered a solid set back as pre-stress
test and employment report jitters set in. Treasury prices were
simply in free fall and the Greenback lost ground to the EURO.
Economic News
Hey, the Stress test results came out. Big
deal…what a joke. $75 billion needed…so if it was 100 billion, the
$s would just be printed anyway.
Stocks
It was more the pre-employment jitters and
hemorrhaging in Treasuries that weighed on this fundamental-less
sector. Positive technicals are still in place and the stress test
offered no major surprises but all eyes are on jobs and also the
Treasury market. Fundamentals remain pathetic but technicals remain
positive.
Fixed Income
Oh my…and I thought the Fed was buying paper.
The 30 Year auction was pretty horrible and there is just a massive
amount of paper that needs to be absorbed by the streets. How about
that mortgage bailout program….don’t hear much about that any more.
Yield resistance for 10 Years comes in at 3.50%, and if that doesn’t
hold….smell ya later.
Currencies
A trade below 1.3240 EURO would negate the
recent EURO break out but for now it is negative for the Greenback.
A major positive was the EURO gaining ground despite the ECB cut.
Keep an eye on the fallout from the jobs report today.
Weekend
time and way too much yard work.
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5/07/09
Yesterday’s Market Recap
It was rally time once again for Stocks and
once again for no fundamental reason at all. Treasury prices were
quiet and so was the Greenback.
Economic News
Keep an eye on Stress test info (the stuff that
hasn’t been leaked yet)
Stocks
We’ll keep playing the broken record that
technicals remain positive and they imply yet higher prices for
Stocks. By the way…the Stress test results?? Who cares, they’re
just printing money anyway, what’s a few more billion? The stink is
getting stronger.
After hours news by Cisco was OK and the stock
has rallied.
Fixed Income
Another OK auction with solid indirect bidding
(from foreign investors). No trends and this sector is a joke as
well.
Currencies
A trade
below 1.3240 EURO would negate the recent EURO break out but for now
it is negative for the Greenback.
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5/06/09
Yesterday’s Market Recap
Stocks finally took a breather as uncertainty
over the stress test kept price activity at bay. Treasury prices
did little to nothing and the Greenback was quiet as well.
Economic News
ISM Services came out a bit stronger than
expected. Big deal.
Stocks
Just a quiet session following a string of
positive days for the major Indexes. Hey, maybe this phantom stock
rally is giving some of these Tarp recipients a way to raise cash to
pay some money back (selling stock ). Doesn’t that smell nice?
You know the story…technicals rule and
something stinks in the financial markets again.
Fixed Income
The 3 Year note auction appears to have done OK
and the market was pretty listless in general. No trends for now.
Currencies
The EURO
quickly retreated to near term support of just under 1.3300
following its breakout on Monday. A trade below 1.3240 would negate
the recent EURO break out.
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5/05/09
Yesterday’s Market Recap
It was up, up and away for Stocks and with no
real reason except for technicals. Treasury prices did little to
mention and the Greenback got hammered.
Economic News
Pending Home sales came in better than
expectations, but the number was compared to a horrific last period
number.
Keep an eye on ISM Services today.
Stocks
You know the story…technicals, but it’s getting
so bad that even some technicians aren’t getting this move. Well,
if you look at the right technicals they are pointing to even more
gains. That is simply all that’s driving this market…fundamentals
are not there. No albatross yet but watch the Treasury auctions and
the employment report later in the week. Just to let you know…some
technicals are pointing to NASDAQ at high 1800s. But the
fundamental support is pathetic.
Fixed Income
No trends just yet and the real test of this
market will be the auction results of a major amount of paper
hitting the streets this week.
Currencies
Well,
the EURO has taken out one level that implies further losses for the
Greenback. A close above 1.3500 would get the major downtrend back
intact.
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5/04/09
Friday’s Market Recap
Stocks posted a back and forth session and
finally squeaked out gains across the major Indexes by the closing
bell on Friday. Treasury prices got simply destroyed again and the
Greenback gave back a bit of ground via the EURO.
Stocks
Let’s play the broken record….technicals
continue to rule the markets as they point to higher levels for the
major Indexes but remember…those fundamentals will come back in an
ugly way soon. However, overnight trading has the Asian markets up
strongly.
Keep an eye on Stress test information and
potential problems in the US Treasury market for any possible
disruptions for the positive technical scenario in this sector.
Fixed Income
The Fed is beginning to look foolish as it
continues its Treasury purchase activities while the market is
simply dumping. Yields are popping and we may be entering an
interesting turn of events here, that even Stocks can’t shake off.
Currencies
The EURO
popped overnight and the creation of the new ASIAN block currency
reserve fund may just send a negative shot to the US$. No
excitement however for a US$ breakdown until EURO 1.3500 is posted.
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5/01/09
Yesterday’s Market Recap
Stocks gave back early gains to end pretty much
flat while Treasury prices posted a lackluster session. Finally,
the Greenback jerked back and forth.
Stocks
The phantom rally had solid legs to start
yesterday’s session, but following Obama's comments on the Chrysler
bankruptcy situation, the exuberance fizzled. Perhaps it was the
sharp comments criticizing some hedge funds. The bottom line
remains that this rally is built on earnings that were compared to
pathetic earnings in the previous period. Fundamentals just don’t
support higher prices but technicals rule for now.
Fixed Income
Yawn…hey the Fed’s buying Treasuries!! and the
market is laughing as it sells.
Currencies
OK…let’s
talk about the weekend…much more refreshing topic. |
