Can the markets override an inept Federal Reserve?
You’ve all heard the call for higher rates around the
marketplace despite pathetic releases in Housing and Manufacturing data. The
Federal Reserve initially hinted that the next step may be up in rates,
however economic fundamentals are making it almost impossible for them to do
so. The question now is that given that a majority of Fixed Income investors
and speculators have positioned themselves for higher Yields and lower
prices…can the markets override the inability of the Fed to take action and
provide profits for these market players?
What this
really refers to is that can investors and traders shy away from Treasury
securities so much that they push market rates higher regardless if the Fed
hikes or not? One factor that helps their plight is that Yields are
increasing around the globe. However, one major danger is that if rates do
not go up soon, there is a sizable amount of Treasury short positions out
there that would feel the squeeze and cover their positions. This would
result in a precipitous decline in market rates. So what’s the answer???
Time…if rates somehow creep down on 10 Year paper over the next week, the
result could be a shot down in Yields as opposed to a shot up.