Could we be in the middle of a modern day Gold Rush?
You bet we could.
This past week, the price of Gold breached the $1,000
mark, yes that wasn’t a typo. A level which simply blows out the old high set
back in the late 1970s. Despite the stellar returns consistently achieved over
the past few years (returns which have far outpaced the major US Equity
Indexes and Fixed Income markets), it appears that much of the media and many
analysts either ignore the market or simply have taken the wrong view, citing
the danger of buying Gold and the presence of a bubble in the market. Well,
if you have followed the market doctor, you would know that over the past few
years the Market Doctor team has been dead on in this market. The interesting
point to note regarding the impressive plight of Gold is that the move has
been supported by a number of clear and noteworthy fundamentals. It is
therefore a travesty why more analysts haven’t gotten this one right.
The fundamentals you ask? Let’s start with the
significant and consistent devaluation of the US$. Secondly, the noteworthy
rise in inflation (even with sub-par inflation reporting data series),
instability in the US financial markets that includes a questioning of Fed
policy and even the quality of ratings on certain security classes, and
finally the possibility of a growing middle class in China and
India.
So why is it
when the NASDAQ registers over 20% gains over short term horizons, the move
is cheered as fundamentally sound. Even despite the fact that many of those
gains are quickly relinquished in a few trading sessions. But when Gold
registers over 20% annual gains over the past few years, based on sound
fundamentals, the media quickly dispels the market as a bubble. Maybe they’re
just angry they’re not long !! If you think Gold is expensive, just remember
how expensive Crude Oil looked at $50 a barrel.