Is there a currency worth the paper it's printed on?
Since the onset of the financial market meltdown, which
began in the US equity sector and then filtered around the globe, one of the
major currencies that managed to appreciate significantly rather than
depreciate was the Japanese Yen. You may ask yourself however…does this make
sense? The answer on a pure traditional fundamental basis involving current
account balance and national debt scenario is NO. Japan seems to be viewed as
the safe haven through all the real estate and subprime fallout but reality is
that this once great global economy (still number two in the world) has been
built on a mountain of national debt that was created to inflate the economy
out of a more than decade recession.
What the media has failed to communicate for years now is
that the national debt of Japan has been the size of the new US national debt
AFTER THE BAILOUTS of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and additional funding.
Additionally, Japanese interest rates have been near zero for numerous years
at the longer end of their treasury curve.
So in case
you think Japan has been doing something right…forget about it. Recent Yen
appreciation is more the result of unwinding of massive hedge fund carry
trades. So what currency is worth anything now? Let me take a few months to
try and figure it out because at face value…there is none. Just a lot of
printed and colorfully designed paper out there the value of which is built on
perception and hope.